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Jessica Branson's Real Estate Newsletter

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Spring 2017 Q2


Welcome to my quarterly newsletter where I give you an insider’s take on real estate — with a special emphasis on where I sell: San Francisco. If you're here in San Francisco, you're enshrouded in our typical summer fog. Wherever you are, hopefully this missive will bring you a little bit of clarity.

On the surface, everything about the US economy looks good— unemployment is low, the stock market is high, the economy still appears to be in recovery mode. The Fed seems confident enough in the recovery to have raised interest rates twice. But it is not showing signs that it will be withdrawing its cheap credit any time soon, which must account for some of the investor bullishness. My lender contact tells me interest rates for home purchases are 3.5% for borrowers with good credit scores. Rates are still at all time lows.

Higher Highs
Here in San Francisco, the economy is strong, too. And, unexpectedly, the first two quarters of 2017 have superseded 2015 as the height of our real estate market in many neighborhoods. After a slight dip in 2016, SF home sale prices this year so far rose above those of 2015 in Cole Valley, Noe Valley, Dolores Heights, and Bernal Heights. Just when we thought things were slowing down a bit, and we were coming in for what seemed to be a smooth landing, we're now back to double digit multiple offers, and sale prices that are surprising everyone. The average price of a home in Noe Valley in 2015 was $2.6M, in 2016 $2.55M, in 2017 so far over $2.7M. In Bernal Heights, the average price of a home in 2015 was $1.4M, now it's $1.55M. 

Time is of the Essence

Not every 2017 sale is amazing — the luxury market (over $3.5M) is still slow, and I have seen homes at all price points sitting on the market. Thankfully, this hasn't happened with any of my listings :) But I have seen unstaged, poorly timed, overpriced, dreadfully marketed properties sit. It's definitely not a given that the sale will be smooth or that the sale price will be phenomenal. With the right property prep and strategy, however, the sale prices right now can be pretty mind blowing. 

Everyone is saying: it can't stay this way! — it's a bubble and it's going to bust. I do agree. It won't stay this way. We all know that. I'm not worried — as I've said here before, life is a series of bubbles and busts and we have to roll with it. To take advantage of strong markets, my approach to selling real estate is 'time is of the essence' — the sooner the better is a good strategy for timing your sale in a market that appears to be hovering at a high. 

Especially now. 

Something's Gotta Give
Before the 2016 election we saw a slight dip in house buying activity as people held their breath and waited for the outcome. Then after the election we saw another dip as people realized Trump was the President and were uncertain what the markets would do. In the beginning of 2017, buyers were back with renewed strength, having realized the markets were OK, and interest rates were creeping up— they felt they had to get into the market while money remained cheap. Now we have new uncertainties and serious issues on the table— North Korea's nukes, and the Russian election meddling investigation to name two — that could majorly impact consumer confidence and the economy. And, new issues seem to arise almost daily. Which one will turn this growth trajectory around and when? We just don't know. 

Total Eclipse of the Heart
As always, thank you so much for referring your friends and family to me! The first two quarters of this year have been really incredible for my business — thanks in large part to you. I am the #1 SF agent at my firm, the #1 SF agent in Bernal Heights, in the top #1-3 SF agents in Noe Valley, and in the top #10 agents in San Francisco. I am grateful that my business has been growing alongside this incredible market. Please don't hesitate to reach out if you need real estate advice or trade recommendations.

Next week my family's going on an adventure — we're getting on the road and chasing the eclipse. We're going for the total eclipse experience, and we're getting really excited about it. Do you have your special glasses?

Happy Summer!
Jessica







San Francisco: Q2 2016 v Q2 2017 Comparative Analysis of Select Neighborhoods
Single Family Homes by Neighborhood Q2 2016 Avg. Price Sold Q2 2017 Avg. Price Sold % Change Units Sold % Change Days on Market % Change
2016 2017 2016 2017
Noe Valley $2,447,771 $2,658,853 8.6% 35 37 5.71% 31 26 -16.1%
Glen Park $1,510,071 $2,025,912 34.2% 14 17 21.43% 24 34 41.7%
Bernal Heights $1,379,830 $1,596,359 15.7% 52 56 7.69% 27 24 -11.1%
Potrero Hill $1,970,571 $1,926,493 -2.2% 14 14 0.00% 31 16 -48.4%
Dolores Heights $2,482,112 $2,403,607 -3.2% 14 13 -7.14% 19 21 10.5%
Cole Valley $2,620,000 $3,749,437 43.1% 2 6 200.00% 45 6 -86.7%
Sea Cliff $2,875,000 $3,412,500 18.7% 2 2 0.00% 16 93 481.3%
Forest Hill $2,153,750 $2,491,600 15.7% 8 5 -37.50% 31 11 -64.5%
Miraloma Park $1,172,250 $1,356,346 15.7% 12 17 41.67% 24 17 -29.2%
Sunnyside $1,105,147 $1,306,672 18.2% 17 16 -5.88% 26 27 3.8%
West Portal $1,954,405 $2,008,000 2.7% 8 5 -37.50% 16 15 -6.3%
Inner Mission $1,922,556 $1,759,200 -8.5% 9 10 11.11% 31 23 -25.8%
Mission Terrace $1,082,857 $1,080,197 -0.2% 7 11 57.14% 29 18 -37.9%
St. Francis Wood $3,175,000 $3,233,833 1.9% 1 6 500.00% 17 12 -29.4%
Lower Pac Heights $3,637,500 $3,056,667 -16.0% 2 3 50.00% 19 51 168.4%
Marina $3,779,000 $3,402,500 -10.0% 5 10 100.00% 42 15 -64.3%
Pacific Heights $5,829,400 $6,802,500 16.7% 15 10 -33.33% 37 33 -10.8%
Cow Hollow $3,775,000 $5,674,667 50.3% 6 6 0.00% 79 47 -40.5%
Inner Richmond $2,299,083 $2,180,857 -5.1% 12 7 -41.67% 22 26 18.2%
Lake Street $2,912,667 $3,208,571 10.2% 3 7 133.33% 14 22 57.1%
Inner Sunset $1,906,969 $1,863,733 -2.3% 16 12 -25.00% 17 21 23.5%




San Francisco: Q2 2016 v Q2 2017 Comparative Analysis of Select Neighborhoods
Condominiums by Neighborhood Q2 2016 Avg. Price Sold Q2 2017 Avg. Price Sold % Change Units Sold % Change Days on Market % Change
2016 2017 2016 2017
Noe Valley $1,354,119 $1,395,180 3.0% 21 38 80.95% 29 28 -3.4%
Potrero Hill $1,106,365 $1,089,333 -1.5% 23 27 17.39% 43 41 -4.7%
Dolores Heights $1,319,150 $1,407,461 6.7% 18 26 44.44% 24 26 8.3%
Lake Street $1,355,000 $1,277,833 -5.7% 8 6 -25.00% 33 18 -45.5%
Marina $1,347,500 $1,586,870 17.8% 12 16 33.33% 18 20 11.1%
Hayes Valley $1,371,970 $1,327,318 -3.3% 19 33 73.68% 28 24 -14.3%
SOMA $813,800 $1,220,424 50.0% 15 33 120.00% 34 52 52.9%
Cole Valley $1,447,542 $1,364,273 -5.8% 6 11 83.33% 12 16 33.3%
Mission Dolores $1,365,307 $1,193,263 -12.6% 18 19 5.56% 25 32 28.0%
Inner Mission $1,198,161 $1,066,183 -11.0% 23 35 52.17% 42 36 -14.3%
Bernal Heights $1,027,714 $1,029,250 0.1% 7 18 157.14% 43 19 -55.8%
Dogpatch $1,005,714 $1,351,000 34.3% 7 8 14.29% 24 27 12.5%
Cow Hollow $1,790,577 $1,196,000 -33.2% 13 10 -23.08% 31 25 -19.4%
Pacific Heights $1,633,778 $2,255,419 38.0% 42 70 66.67% 27 29 7.4%
Glen Park $1,250,000 $963,333 -22.9% 1 3 200.00% 21 21 0.0%
Duboce Triangle $1,410,000 $1,785,000 26.6% 3 6 100.00% 11 16 45.5%
Lower Pac Heights $1,112,919 $1,351,995 21.5% 11 22 100.00% 28 32 14.3%
NOPA $1,181,639 $1,312,933 11.1% 11 15 36.36% 45 23 -48.9%
Haight Ashbury $1,238,750 $1,775,571 43.3% 8 7 -12.50% 30 15 -50.0%
Lone Mountain $982,500 $890,000 -9.4% 2 1 -50.00% 31 28 -9.7%
Inner Sunset $1,100,000 $1,710,000 55.5% 7 1 -85.71% 32 32 0.0%
Inner Richmond $1,036,198 $1,378,000 33.0% 3 7 133.33% 13 27 107.7%






San Francisco : 2011 - 2017 Through Q2
Single Family Homes Average Sold Price Average Price/SQFT
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2011 v 2017 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2011 v 2017
San Francisco $965,145 $1,107,604 $1,295,976 $1,447,526 $1,714,900 $1,715,523 $1,796,666 71.87% 557 614 708 964 1115 898 976 75.22%
Noe Valley $1,445,939 $1,475,376 $1,883,309 $2,294,774 $2,599,248 $2,542,682 $2,717,792 87.96% 690 768 900 1021 1227 1175 1196 73.33%
Glen Park $1,031,771 $1,062,084 $1,331,906 $1,491,682 $1,860,516 $1,548,351 $1,920,646 86.15% 603 663 803 895 1023 1020 959 59.04%
Bernal Heights $717,787 $813,483 $1,014,306 $1,175,695 $1,411,068 $1,390,502 $1,544,633 115.19% 513 570 720 823 973 960 1006 96.10%
Potrero Hill $1,107,061 $905,083 $1,338,250 $1,550,719 $1,691,840 $1,941,426 $1,862,994 68.28% 679 657 810 984 906 1109 1004 47.86%
Dolores Heights $1,393,467 $1,878,660 $1,803,659 $2,306,256 $2,456,558 $2,384,982 $2,757,910 97.92% 701 801 993 1045 1114 1130 1179 68.19%
Cole Valley $1,712,375 $1,847,462 $2,081,853 $2,267,667 $3,100,500 $2,152,857 $3,982,985 132.60% 720 854 850 995 1142 1035 1167 62.08%
Sea Cliff $2,073,001 $3,794,714 $3,561,017 $4,332,825 $3,840,167 $3,550,000 $4,066,667 96.17% 641 922 926 1068 1355 1104 1063 65.83%
Forest Hill $1,378,033 $1,588,750 $1,674,316 $2,004,188 $2,246,333 $2,233,500 $2,491,600 80.81% 553 562 655 815 806 845 978 76.85%
Miraloma Park $752,935 $815,369 $974,507 $1,118,500 $1,339,433 $1,287,588 $1,360,449 80.69% 493 560 631 736 763 863 977 98.17%
Sunnyside $623,186 $652,063 $844,839 $892,483 $1,228,222 $1,184,583 $1,253,284 101.11% 496 555 621 694 820 893 1017 105.04%
West Portal $979,075 $1,159,905 $1,253,118 $1,452,647 $1,778,333 $1,831,385 $1,941,200 98.27% 549 573 636 773 968 906 960 74.86%
Inner Mission $766,120 $876,037 $1,145,665 $1,300,000 $1,890,333 $1,748,944 $1,725,950 125.28% 496 508 667 810 1040 939 994 100.40%
Mission Terrace $560,592 $593,135 $732,857 $905,401 $1,018,357 $1,051,533 $1,079,448 92.56% 429 442 566 636 726 739 746 73.89%
St. Francis Wood $1,969,213 $1,867,239 $2,083,080 $2,468,500 $3,552,889 $3,175,000 $3,067,000 55.75% 589 597 687 852 909 924 939 59.42%
Lower Pac Heights $1,492,459 $1,725,201 $2,352,579 $2,575,900 $1,755,000 $3,901,250 $2,961,429 98.43% 665 659 855 1073 760 1108 1197 80.00%
Marina $2,211,254 $2,543,583 $2,847,094 $3,262,029 $3,290,068 $3,443,333 $3,389,546 53.29% 757 800 1037 1172 1322 1245 1280 69.09%
Pacific Heights $4,253,739 $5,276,475 $5,486,963 $5,281,720 $8,234,976 $6,026,667 $6,291,875 47.91% 907 953 1106 1246 1786 1640 1514 66.92%
Cow Hollow $2,585,935 $3,687,913 $3,449,560 $4,311,994 $5,924,000 $4,517,873 $5,378,286 107.98% 801 958 1246 1267 1369 1428 1442 80.02%
Inner Richmond $1,175,830 $1,388,138 $1,508,792 $1,824,230 $2,102,312 $2,308,667 $2,242,250 90.70% 544 568 648 801 873 833 911 67.46%
Lake Street $1,948,416 $1,914,680 $2,255,677 $2,750,654 $2,986,143 $3,345,167 $2,822,067 44.84% 700 690 770 970 965 957 1057 51.00%
Inner Sunset $934,781 $911,535 $1,202,458 $1,625,250 $1,376,342 $1,887,795 $1,801,100 92.68% 530 524 616 793 838 939 959 80.94%






San Francisco : 2011 - 2017 Through Q2
Condominiums Average Sold Price Average Price/SQFT
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2011 v 2017 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2011 v 2017
San Francisco $766,925 $823,633 $922,975 $1,102,766 $1,264,457 $1,251,791 $1,316,139 71.61% 643 670 764 1112 1223 1039 1078 67.65%
Noe Valley $860,175 $1,000,957 $1,059,080 $1,242,109 $1,454,600 $1,307,039 $1,478,468 71.88% 632 699 805 947 1055 1050 1090 72.47%
Potrero Hill $624,314 $616,612 $733,358 $981,633 $1,114,119 $1,083,459 $1,094,781 75.36% 549 554 687 910 967 1030 926 68.67%
Dolores Heights $861,062 $1,022,230 $1,207,718 $1,185,793 $1,389,207 $1,305,921 $1,446,771 68.02% 652 732 866 979 1097 1078 1084 66.26%
Lake Street $836,000 $888,328 $1,015,981 $1,216,143 $1,327,964 $1,386,667 $1,302,429 55.79% 565 649 743 821 867 947 930 64.60%
Marina $965,119 $1,060,407 $1,223,981 $1,196,963 $1,514,330 $1,476,889 $1,575,934 63.29% 709 782 918 1001 1087 1151 1154 62.76%
Hayes Valley $732,548 $784,618 $873,315 $1,089,682 $1,126,959 $1,344,777 $1,299,295 77.37% 605 682 828 1030 1081 1155 1120 85.12%
SOMA $672,075 $658,156 $826,458 $932,163 $1,073,735 $946,091 $1,241,085 84.66% 627 613 742 925 985 1062 1080 72.25%
Cole Valley $841,072 $948,318 $1,069,739 $1,148,545 $1,245,716 $1,448,917 $1,306,000 55.28% 580 685 813 854 1021 958 1113 91.90%
Mission Dolores $697,811 $789,501 $1,182,976 $1,239,570 $1,187,814 $1,453,048 $1,376,313 97.23% 606 718 920 908 1094 1078 1069 76.40%
Inner Mission $718,068 $769,205 $863,687 $1,050,723 $978,906 $1,136,189 $1,060,008 47.62% 541 649 725 884 1019 972 1035 91.31%
Bernal Heights $710,690 $624,822 $819,538 $813,667 $800,469 $1,075,364 $999,196 40.60% 531 519 667 737 836 844 988 86.06%
Dogpatch $723,590 $675,035 $755,370 $894,450 $1,236,000 $1,061,500 $1,242,625 71.73% 541 584 637 838 1006 978 975 80.22%
Cow Hollow $988,997 $963,458 $1,152,354 $1,497,156 $1,738,914 $1,811,719 $1,288,619 30.30% 723 823 899 969 1263 1256 1183 63.62%
Pacific Heights $1,097,106 $1,096,029 $1,317,437 $1,501,676 $1,697,565 $1,770,262 $2,068,631 88.55% 699 813 883 964 1108 1214 1209 72.96%
Glen Park $765,693 $874,000 $1,001,853 $936,125 $916,333 $1,325,000 $970,500 26.75% 487 619 725 728 1016 878 1012 107.80%
Duboce Triangle $876,294 $905,750 $1,090,583 $1,053,720 $1,398,633 $1,363,750 $1,640,417 87.20% 635 694 826 1094 981 1079 1231 93.86%
Lower Pac Heights $672,871 $745,722 $888,100 $881,564 $1,116,074 $1,228,459 $1,242,598 84.67% 546 577 719 660 956 939 1041 90.66%
NOPA $712,804 $824,958 $894,910 $988,852 $1,207,050 $1,263,776 $1,346,441 88.89% 587 635 799 847 878 936 1069 82.11%
Haight Ashbury $801,159 $977,900 $1,171,966 $1,073,214 $1,199,389 $1,187,542 $1,490,560 86.05% 508 635 738 878 899 919 990 94.88%
Lone Mountain $678,358 $886,029 $895,600 $1,004,750 $1,178,200 $1,065,000 $1,060,000 56.26% 571 570 718 709 890 839 1090 90.89%
Inner Sunset $716,411 $823,006 $949,261 $1,235,556 $1,322,273 $1,239,167 $1,108,000 54.66% 485 596 655 800 799 814 748 54.23%
Inner Richmond $727,165 $740,481 $887,405 $1,108,704 $1,333,333 $1,086,228 $1,347,000 85.24% 545 579 728 821 874 964 935 71.56%
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